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How to use statistics when betting

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Oct 14

Statistics are one of the tools that can help you become a successful bettor. Fortunately, collecting information and statistical data is a relatively simple task today thanks to the implementation of the internet.

The use of sports betting statistics

The first thing to mention is the fact that bookmakers rely on all kinds of statistics to set the odds you find in different sports and markets on their websites, and often do so using their own databases that allow them to develop such statistics You should also know that the effectiveness of using statistical data will depend directly on the type of bet you intend to make. In that sense, we can tell you that bets on the number of goals, number of corners or number of cards in football are common examples of markets in which many bettors make bets using statistical data.

Although relying on statistics does not guarantee that you will win at the bookmakers in the long term, employing them will increase your success options

Regardless of the amount of statistical information you have access to, the important thing will be that you learn to apply it in betting based on odds, typically in sports. Although we cannot guarantee that you will beat bookmakers using statistics, it will help you increase the chances of winning money with your bets.

How to use statistics when betting?

The use of statistics does not have to be something exclusive of professional bettors, also the casual player who bets for fun can use them. In the case of the amateur gambler, who plays small amounts to hang out, the basic information that can be easily accessed is the classification of the team in the competition or its results in previous matches.

However, beyond these basic statistics, there is more detailed and in-depth information that you can benefit from and take advantage of. For example, speaking of football: the number of shots on goal, the number of goal passes or the number of shots on goal that become a goal in relation to totals.

There are times when the statistics or numbers of a team are better than their position in the leaderboard suggests … and it may only be a matter of time before they prove it by winning matches. If you take it seriously and rely on statistics, it may not be a bad idea to develop your own betting model – for example, using the Excel program to create it and basing it on statistical data exclusively.

Example of betting with statistics in total number of goals

Suppose you consider making a bet that there will be more than 2.5 goals in a league match between Sevilla and Betis. The statistics of Sevilla show that the matches played at home in the Sánchez-Pizjuán end with more than 2.5 goals – that is, three or more – in 75% of cases. On the other hand, the league matches that Betis plays at home end with more than two goals in 47% of occasions.

If you go further back in time and review the previous meetings between both teams, you can see that 6 of the last 10 matches have ended with more than 2.5 goals. When performing the analysis with all this statistical information, you realize that there is a probability above 55% that there are 3 or more goals in the match.

Translating it into odds, this means that the bookmaker should offer odds greater than 1.82 to make it profitable to bet – 55% probability equals 1.82 odds. Therefore, statistics reveal that you must discard shares that are below 1.82 in that particular market, and bet when they are above that figure.

Example of betting with statistics on total number of cards

We will assume that in an edition of El Clásico, Real Madrid against Barcelona, you find 1.9 odds for both selections in the market plus / minus 5.5 cards. Statistics indicate that Real Madrid receives an average of 1.8 yellow cards per game, while that of Barcelona is 2.1. Therefore, both teams receive 3.9 yellow cards per game together.

However, there are more statistics to collect and they may have a greater weight: you review the previous meetings between the teams and observe that the average of cards is 5.9; that is, the data reveals that there will be more than 5.5 card in the match. Another important information that you can consult is the propensity of the referee of the Clasico to draw yellow cards in which matches he officiates. Let’s say that braid gets an average of 5.2 cards in their matches.

Once you have incorporated all the statistics and analyzed them, you conclude that there is a 50% chance that there are more than 5.5 yellow cards – and therefore, the same probability that there are less than 5.5 . Once this is done, you agree with the 1.9 odds that you have found and you realize that it is not profitable to bet in one direction or the other, since 50% probability is equivalent to 2.0 odds. Therefore, based on the statistical analysis, you must find odds above 2.0 so that your bet makes sense.

Example of betting with statistics on number of corners

The Alavés receives Osasuna and you decide to bet on the number of corners in the match, with the bookmaker offering different bets – markets – to corners. For example, you can bet on more / less than (certain number of corners), exact number of corners (between both teams), which team will take the most corners and even which team will force the next corner or the last of the match.

The corner statistics of Alavés playing at home are: 11.5 total in the match – 6.3 in attack (in favor of Alavés) and 5.2 in defense. On the other hand, the matches that Osasuna plays as a visitor end with an average of 11.7 corners – 5.3 in favor of Osasuna, and 6.4 against them. In addition to this information, you decide to consult statistics regarding corners in previous matches between the two teams … and the data indicate that the Alavés starts with a slight advantage in relation to the number of corners per game between parties.

After having gathered the information and analyzed all the statistics, when comparing them with the odds of the bookmaker you realize that, although there is that small advantage for Alavés, the betting website is overvaluing the number of corners that will be at your Please in the match. Therefore, it may be a good option to bet that the Osasuna will take more than 4.5 corners if you find odds over two.

Disadvantages of betting based solely on statistics

It is undeniable that it can be profitable to use statistics when betting, because they can give you some advantage against the bookmaker. However, it may not be the best idea to place your bets guiding you solely and exclusively by statistical data. Regardless of the sports discipline we talk about, there are always other factors that come into play and have a direct influence on the outcome of the game and, consequently, of a bet.

Among these factors we can name the weather conditions during the course of the game, possible injuries or suspensions of any player / s, and even an aggressive or hyperdefensive game plan by any of the contestants. These are difficult aspects to incorporate in the statistics, and if they were … it will probably be difficult to find the information.

Therefore, you should keep in mind that statistics are one of several factors to consider before deciding to place a bet. In addition to that, a very common problem when choosing to collect and use statistics when betting is, how far back in time should I consider the statistics ?, or put another way … are previous meetings between both teams more important or the last ones who played this season (against any team)?

Let’s put a typical example: it is possible to ignore that, between the last game they have faced and the current one, a new coach has reached one of the teams, traditionally worse standing in the face-to-face between them, and has changed His football philosophy. Such a fact can change the landscape diametrically and create different conditions in the match in question.

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