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The most common mistakes in sports betting

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Mar 20

There are two elements in this guide, that is, indications of the less viable betting options with a review of some common mistakes and guidelines to be successful in sports betting. Combining these two areas of advice should greatly improve your performance, especially if you are a beginner.

The worst bets offered by the bookmaker

Some of the most popular bets in the market are not recommended. Two of them are very suitable to make you lose money and therefore, are the preferred bets in the community. If you resist these opportunities, you are likely to end up saving money.

Accumulators

Almost every bettor has ever placed an accumulated or multiple bet in his life, hoping to combine high odds with a pair of seemingly secure selections. This applies especially to those who bet once a week, who deposit € 10 in one of their betting accounts on a Friday night with the hope of getting rich during the weekend. The truth is that multiple bets are one of the main sources of income for bookmakers, and this indicates that the benefit for bettors is very poor.

Example of an accumulator

Your betting ticket includes five games as follows:

Chelsea to win in odds 1.50
Over 2.5 goals in the match between Liverpool and Tottenham at 1.75
Newcastle and Crystal Palace draw, odds of 3.50
Manchester City to win away from home at 1.90
Arsenal + 1 with Asian Handicap at 2.20

The five probabilities are multiplied as follows: 1.50 x 1.75 x 3.50 x 1.90 x 2.20 = 38.40.

As you can see, our betting heel shows a multiple bet with juicy odds of 38.40 which means a return of € 384.00 for a € 10 stake. However, these probabilities are equated to a probability of less than 3% of correcting each prediction. That low performance gets worse as more games are added.

The same theory applies to another approach that is slightly different. Many bettors only include two or three teams in their multiple bets that are clear favorites. Bankers include teams such as Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. Three teams at a price of 1.30 that combined produce odds of 2.20. This sounds like a good proportion, but there are always surprising results in football. If Bayern draw against Frankfurt, the bet is lost.

Winning a multiple bet is similar to trying to win the lottery. If you’re looking for a big jackpot, the multiple bets are for you. However, if you want to keep your money in your pocket you should avoid this type of bet and here are two main reasons why:

Odds increase means greater risk

The more games included in a betting ticket, the higher the probability that a match will turn out as expected. You must always remember that a bad selection ruins the rest of the multiple bet.

The bookmakers restrict the benefit

Even if you are lucky and your multiple bet wins, you will soon realize that bookmakers put limits on your potential profit. That means that the profit is limited to a certain amount of money. It depends on the operator, but in general the typical limit is € 20,000, which is the maximum benefit.

As an example, let’s assume that you scored 12 out of 12 winners in an accumulator that returns € 30,000. Unfortunately, due to the restrictions you will not receive the total profit. This is quite annoying and another consequence is that they limit your ability to bet in the future. The sportsbooks are very allergic to the winning customers.

Even so, in some cases multiple bets may be useful. Let’s say you identified a pair of value bets (explained later in this guide). There is nothing wrong with the combination of these options and thus let the probabilities multiply. Unfortunately this is easier said than done, especially for novice players. It is a skill that is to find value bets and those who are capable of doing this, will be successful gamblers in the long term.

Live betting

Live betting for football and other sports has become one of the most popular features of online betting and the trend is for it to increase. There is a general characteristic of live betting: you will almost never find good value in this type of bet. It is not impossible to find odds that are high, but it can be difficult. The bookmakers are very good at compiling live betting so you could only have a couple of seconds to make a decent odds bet. Many professionals are currently looking for the same windows of opportunity, which quickly changes the value.

Live betting perfectly illustrates the control runners have over their customers. The growth of live betting is the main reason why more events are broadcast live on the betting websites. Bookmakers have noticed that the number of bets increases when customers can see live coverage of a match, as customers are in a better position to make predictions about the outcome of an event that can be seen live.

Another important disadvantage in live betting is that bets are subject to a delay between the live action and that they are accepted. On the contrary, pre-match bets are taken instantly without delay. The delay associated with live betting can be ten seconds or more.

Millions of gamblers probably scream every weekend when their bets are rejected. You can forget about making a quick bet after a goal. The bookmakers have procedures that automatically close the markets after important events, such as a goal, red card or a penalty or penalty.

Does this mean that live betting is always a bad option? The answer to that question is not necessarily; although there is only one possible scenario in which live betting makes sense. If some odds represent value before a match begins, they will not disappear in the first few minutes of the match. This situation occurs especially in some “Low” markets when the odds increase slightly once the match starts. The same can be said for some markets with Asian Handicap, but only positive odds such as +1 AH for a team. However, taking into account the disadvantages, it is best to avoid any bet during the game. Live bets are overvalued, but they are becoming more popular, so do not support your bookmaker by doing this.

Never bet on your team

It’s pretty obvious why betting on your team is not a good idea. First, people tend to overestimate the potential performance capacity of a team they support. Loyalty and faith make fans think that their team can beat anyone at any time. The reality is that you should never lose objectivity when you bet, never!

The second thing is that the pain is only increased when your team loses and you also made a losing bet. Not only do you see the team you support leaving points, but you also lose money. Even if you make a reasoned decision to back up the opponents, you will find yourself in the uncomfortable position of encouraging the other team to beat the team you support. So betting on a game in which your team is involved is almost always a bad idea.

Betting on the result is wrong

Score or result bets are very popular although they represent one of the worst betting options for a bettor. The usual format is as follows:

Manchester City to win 3-0 and Aguero to score in odds of 9.00

We suggest you avoid this type of bets, as they are underestimated. The bookmakers usually place players who are in a good run and customers miscalculate the true odds of these players scoring again because they are popular. The result is that customers place a very poor bet. The odds are too low and incorporate a large margin, so bookmakers have a good advantage. This advantage is not very big but enough to make money, although we hope it is not yours.

It is better to focus on the Asian Handicap and bet more / less instead. There is more competition among bookmakers in these areas and the best odds are more favorable for customers. The same applies to classic bets for tournament winners.

Very common mistakes that put your money at risk

Now that we have explained some of the worst betting options in the market, we want to focus on some common mistakes in sports betting. We will have a close look at the confirmation bias, good money management, retirement facilities and bonuses.

Do not fall into the confirmation bias

Confirmation bias is a term in psychology that means the tendency of people to always look for evidence that confirms their theories, paying less attention to the contrast of information. It is one of the main mistakes made by gamblers and is increasingly made in their search for information regarding their upcoming elections.

The best research is objective and based on an evaluation of all facts with reference to probabilities. In fact, most players make a betting decision and then look for the evidence that supports it and thus fall into this trap. For example, instead of focusing on the last three games a team has played and won, look more closely at the last 10 or even 15 events of that team. The result is a more accurate assessment even though you may not like what you discover.

Never double your bet

A very popular strategy is to double your bet after losing, even though this does not work. The concept was originally designed for roulette and the idea is simple: Doubling the bet means that you can not lose in the long term because, in the end you will compensate your losses with a winning bet. Unfortunately, two factors make this system flawed:

First, the bet increases exponentially during a losing streak. For example, if you lose the first bet of € 10 the second bet should be € 20, the third bet will be € 40 and so on. The fifth option would be a € 160 participation and most bettors realize that it is feasible to have five consecutive lost bets. At some point, you simply run out of money.

The second drawback is that bookmakers put limits, which means that your shares are restricted. If you have a losing streak of, say, six bets, the runner could limit the system by refusing to take a bet large enough to recover losses from previous bets.

So, what can we conclude? Although the probability of having a losing streak is always low it is not as low as you might think. The loss of your betting fund, while developing what is known as the Martingale system is a realistic scenario.

The continued success of online casinos is based on a similar misconception. People tend to think that the Martingale system will eventually work. They believe that the result of a turn in roulette will produce different results and that after a series of reds there MUST be a black soon. The color changes, but often too late, which makes the player have to place ridiculously high bets after several misguided predictions. The system has to be followed in the context of the limitations to the participations established by the casino.

The implication of your bets is that lost bets must be accepted and not compensated by doubling the bet and thus losing even more.

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