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The directional bets consist of betting simply on a result. Behind the basic mechanism of the bets sublies: we put money in favour of certain team, if I win I take it to myself multiplied for the quota, if not, I lose it. We play, so, simply against the probability of the result, something that the houses of bets handle to the perfection.

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Does economic sense make bet hereby?

Yes, in the only situation: when the implicit probability of the quota that offers us the house of bets performs lower than the real probability of which the result happens. In this case, it is said that the bet has value.

With an example, let’s imagine a football match: Royal Company – Royal Betis Balompi√©. Let’s assume that the quota for the victory of the Royal Company is of 2. This means that the probability that the house of bets assigns to this result is 50 %. Therefore, only it has felt to bet if the royal probability of which the Royal one conquers the Betis is superior to 50 %.

This one is not a frequent situation, but rather on the contrary. As we explain previously, the houses of bets have enormous human and technical means, so they handle the statistics and the probability better than anybody. Nevertheless, yes it happens in occasions that the house of bets sees forced to move the quotas out of what the statistics marks them, and the erroneous estimations of the mass can create this situation precisely of apostantes. If a high part of the money centers in certain results, it is very habitual that the house of bets modifies the quotas of the complementary results to make them more attractive to other apostantes and to balance his risk, offering hereby an opportunity of long-term profit.

Again with our example, if most of the money of the bets goes to ties or victories of the Betis, our house of bets can choose to offer quotas of 2.2 ó 2.4 that assume implicit probabilities of 45 % and 42 % respectively. With these quotas and a royal probability of 50 % it makes the whole sense of the world bet for the Royal Company. The bet offers, so, value to the apostante, in Anglo-Saxon terms, his expected value or awaited value is positive. To evaluate them, we have elaborated this method of analysis of the value of the sports bets.

With this mechanism, the individual apostante helps to the house of bets to re-balance the market, and is positioned of fact in opposition to other apostantes.

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