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Posts Tagged ‘ Analytical≠Statistics ’

Analytical≠Statistics

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Feb 21

Analytical≠Statistics

Let’s go to another article that I think can help those who read us and I also believe that it can bring controversy.

But let’s get to it!
Every day we hear about statistics and statistical analyzes and even “analytics” I put in English because the translation does not highlight the importance of the word.
Today’s title of this article is simple “Stats” are different from “analytics”.
A lot of you must be thinking, but is not it the same thing?

No!

Let’s start with a small example, the “Stats” are concrete data of what happened in the game.
For example: The A team scored more than 2.5 goals at home! The B team scored more than 1.75 goals away.
These are “Stats” are numbers that “really” happen, it is based on these numbers that we can see what the teams can actually do.
Stats are very important for the study of a sporting event, be it football, basketball or other sport.
Many bettors say “I do not look at statistics” but many look and give a certain value!
Now that we already know what “Stats” has come to the fore an old question! Should one or not look at the statistics?
Attention this is my opinion, I think we should “look” and ponder over them. They may not have much relevance, but they can be decisive. As I said many bettors do not look at the statistics, but as we said in previous articles, is the adopted method of these same bettors.
Somehow and here I call attention to “Stats” can mislead you! Yes, a team there to score more than 3.5 goals at home does not mean that they will do it in that game, right?
As in any analysis the “Stats” should always be “weighing” decision and not “supreme truth”. I believe that a good qualitative analysis by adding the “Stats” we can look at this event in another way.
Another question arises, the “Stats” that we have access to the bookies themselves also have them! Yes it’s true, and they still have more data and with “n” times back!
The houses have a huge base date, you are just starting in front of us in this requirement. But then the qualitative part may be missing and then only the “man” can intervene at least for now!

Back to the subject…

Those who read us should always look at the “Stats” in a soft, soft way, as they please, should ponder them and not make use of them in their bets.
Many are carried away by the “Stats” but friends the importance of that event can change and much this question!
Let’s take another example to verify that the “Stats” should be weighted!
Let’s imagine that team A has the 3.5-goal average at home! But the forward, his best scorer is injured, and only he has 10 goals scored!
Do not think that the average of goals expected for this game should be lowered in thesis?
I do it, low down the average, if the best scorer is out, we can not expect something similar if the “Stats” do not say they will have more goals!

ATTENTION! – Look at whether or not that player was in this totality of goals, this factor is very important!

As this little explanation comes, it already gives “water by the beard”. That’s why many bettors do not look at the Stats because they are “misleading” and at the same time so assertive!
I think that new punters should be especially careful with the “Stats” and advice I give you is: do not look like a real truth, equalize the Stats in your study! Do not look at them, try to explain them so that they help you in your study and do not deceive you!
It was easier said simply, do not look at the “Stats” – But I would be making a mistake in saying this, because we have to look a little at them giving the “real” importance to us!
In short, dear bettors we have to give the importance that we want to give ourselves, and the real value of them!
I think it has become clear, all about the famous “Stats”!
Now let’s see why “Stats” are not the same as “analytics”!
Analytics are analyzes and projections based on the “Stats”
Those who use analytics a lot are the big computers that bookmakers have and use to predict the likely outcome of that event.
The houses use these analytics as nobody else because without them the houses were at the mercy of a bettor!
Predicting an event like football is very complicated, knowing what the 11’s on each side are going to do is very complex. Knowing if there will be more than 2.5 goals is also not easy!
So the houses use statistical models and use analytics to predict what can happen in the game.
Statistical models “analyze” the Stats first and then correlate with “analytics” and then assume various weights and functions to arrive at an “approximation”!
Does it seem confusing? Yes but for a mathematician it is something that is simple! Believe that these intelligence systems, as I call them, were designed by great mathematicians.
It is usual to walk around betting systems on the basis of these mathematical models, but of course it requires a lot of work and for us “common” bettors is out of our reach!
Computers formulas and models are expensive and cost a lot of money and only homes can own.
We bettors can only predict 10% at most by comparing ourselves with these intelligence systems.

And now the most curious, the Man is also wrong, is inattentive, tired, distracted … and may not be able to handle the message!

The best thing to blame could be the “trainee” who did not give him all the information about that event!
Geez, after all the bookmakers system is not that good, is it?
Well today a slightly shorter article, but just to let you think, that there are no perfect systems, nor the Stats are the reason of the whole truth!
The houses with the same great systems err, and you have testimonies of it!
So the fight may not be as unequal as previously thought, and in my view, we just have to be in the right place at the right time and put a bet on the right spot …. To bet to win!
For these and others that many continue in this fight and many “make life” of it!
Good week, good bets.