To fix the quota of an event, the house of bets calculates the probability of which the sports forecast(prediction) is fulfilled. If it(he,she) underestimates this probability, he(she) will propose a very high and at the time quota you will be able to bet on a profitable quota. A value bet is, therefore, one bets(stations) whose(which) probability of success(wisdom) is underestimated by the house of bets.

A bet is a value bet if the following formula is fulfilled:

1/Quota Probability of success

Example of value bet

To discover a value bet must calculate the probability you itself. If his calculations are correct, the probability of success will be major of what they indicate the quotas to him and will obtain long-term benefits.

Complicated of the value bet is to calculate probabilities more exact than those of the houses of bets. The houses of bets have to his scope specialized tools and a priori the combat seems to be very unequal.

Now, thanks to SportyTrader, it can cash in to his bets. SportyTrader has developed a few mathematical specific models for football and tennis. These models allow to calculate probabilities of very trustworthy results.

Consequently, if we decide to put again 10 eurillos to the Athletic, we will have to play the following thing in the complementary results:

Stake Joins = 10 x 2.2 / 4.1 = 5.37 Euros

Stake Valencia = 10 x 2.2 / 4.3 = 5.12 Euros

Definitively, let’s agree bets for value of 10 + 5.37 + 5.12 = 20.49 Euros. Let’s examine what happens in each of the possible results:

If he conquers the Athletic we obtain a prize of 2.2 x 10 = 22 Euros

If they tie, the prize is of 4.1 x 5.37 = 22.01 Euros

If it gains the Valencia the prize is of 4.3 x 5.12 = 22.01 Euros

We have in three cases prizes of 22 Euros; the smallest differences are owed to redondeos, with more decimals they disappear. The total incurred expenses are of 20.49. So it happens what happens, we obtain 1.51 Euros.

]]>Does economic sense make bet hereby?

Yes, in the only situation: when the implicit probability of the quota that offers us the house of bets performs lower than the real probability of which the result happens. In this case, it is said that the bet has value.

With an example, let’s imagine a football match: Royal Company – Royal Betis Balompié. Let’s assume that the quota for the victory of the Royal Company is of 2. This means that the probability that the house of bets assigns to this result is 50 %. Therefore, only it has felt to bet if the royal probability of which the Royal one conquers the Betis is superior to 50 %.

This one is not a frequent situation, but rather on the contrary. As we explain previously, the houses of bets have enormous human and technical means, so they handle the statistics and the probability better than anybody. Nevertheless, yes it happens in occasions that the house of bets sees forced to move the quotas out of what the statistics marks them, and the erroneous estimations of the mass can create this situation precisely of apostantes. If a high part of the money centers in certain results, it is very habitual that the house of bets modifies the quotas of the complementary results to make them more attractive to other apostantes and to balance his risk, offering hereby an opportunity of long-term profit.

Again with our example, if most of the money of the bets goes to ties or victories of the Betis, our house of bets can choose to offer quotas of 2.2 ó 2.4 that assume implicit probabilities of 45 % and 42 % respectively. With these quotas and a royal probability of 50 % it makes the whole sense of the world bet for the Royal Company. The bet offers, so, value to the apostante, in Anglo-Saxon terms, his expected value or awaited value is positive. To evaluate them, we have elaborated this method of analysis of the value of the sports bets.

With this mechanism, the individual apostante helps to the house of bets to re-balance the market, and is positioned of fact in opposition to other apostantes.

]]>Later I they present my strategy of value:One take a good source that informs one also about the distribution probabilística percentage on the basis of the statistics.

They take then the current quotas of his house or favorite exchange of bets (generally is the bookie in whose account of bets you have the majority of your Euros)

See a list of the best houses of bets

Then it follows a comparison of the statistical percentages with the current quota. You turn simply a quota into percentages or upside-down, dividing yours 1/cuota resp. 1/porcentaje.

For example:

Celtic Saragossa 74 15 11 The quota of victory with Bet365, e.g. it is of 1,75 for Saragossa 1: 1,75 = 0,571 is equivalent aprox. to 57 % Is equivalent to a difference of 74 % – 57 % = 17 %

East 17 % is brought into play in agreement by Kelly’s strategy.

The brought into play one according to Kelly is:

Budget (e.g. 500 Euros) multiplied by 1/10 of the estimation of values (in this case 17 %, or, 0,17) divided by the quota less 1 (or in this case 1,75 – 1 = 0,75)

In our game itis equivalent then to 85 divided between 0,75 = 113,33 Euros of bet

Kelly’s strategy has the advantage of calculating the puttings precisely according to the probability and the active balance of the available bet nowadays.

*To use this system you need a lot of discipline and good money management. About money management you can read more in the resources section, but you should vo impose discipline and to respect yourself when you start the system.*

*Our professional punters recommend users began using this system only betting option “over 0.5” available at Bet365. What is this option? It’s very simple, if you bet in the match that enroll at least once you win that bet.*

*Usually, 90% of games played ends with at least one goal scored. Championships should be avoided when using this system are: Israel, Czech Republic, Russia, Denmark.*

*We recommend to use this system in the betting by bet365, because odds are much higher than in normal cases.*

** Below is the sequence of this type of bet**:

** FC Brasov – Poli Iasi | | over 0.5 goals | | share 1.2 | | , 100 euro stake (winner) **

**Steaua – FC Vaslui | | over 0.5 goals | | share 1.2 | | bet 120 euros (winner) **

*As you can see, every time you use the stake + profit gain obtained for the next bet. An experienced bettor manages to get from 100 euros to 1000 using this system in just a few days.*

* ** ** **It’s good to set a target (a sum of money to stop if you managed to win) and a perfect conduct that will stop when you deviate from the rules of this system.*

*In major championships of Europe and in the lower leagues in England, this system has little value because the gaps are often marked with the head or free kick.*

*For the option to bet: “The next goal in the percent” have rates starting at 1.70 and reach 2.00 depending on the game. If we simply count just by doubling the stake we have a win soon.*

*Advised to increase stake in importance depending on the match and forwards the two teams. If you are very sure sign of a team will advise you to increase percent stake as much as possible because during this system we tested was the maximum paid off.*

*Good luck, and remember to subscribe to one of our recommended bookmakers to receive a triple bonus!*

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*Martingale method dates from the 18th century, originating in France. This method was designed for singles with 50% chance, like throwing a coin. The strategy consists in choosing a girl, Heads or tails and doubling the stake after each loss, so that when the first page plus gain recover lost profits.*

*We can see below the 4 steps to using this system we obtained a profit of 80 euros, even though we lost 3 out of 4 bets placed.*

*This system provides the necessary safety even unlucky punters who managed to win very often. Diagram above presents the system using relatively small share, but imagine using the system for a few tickets with a large share ..*

*Important and essential thing to remember is that the stakes should be chosen to make enough money in the bank remains wrong even if 5 or 6 consecutive bets.*

Martingale system is invincible when used by an experienced gambler follow the rules and do not deviate from the regulation.

**Example**:

The first bet stake 10 euros – lost

The second bet stake 20 euros – lost

The third bet stake 40 euros – lost

The fourth bet stake 80 euros- won

If a football bet, you can choose a team and will count as equal, for example. To comply with the method of betting the amount bet doubles after each stage and of course is betting on the same team.

After every team makes a draw, all you the choice of this team, inspiration, study charts and odds offered by bookmakers. Usually these rates are above 3.00 at a draw back so the calculation above if you would get the fourth bet you win 240-80 (bet 4) – 70 (previous bet) = 90 lei.

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