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Archive for the ‘ Martingale ’ Category

Sure bets of football. The triple case of the 1 X 2

Martingale | Comments Off on Sure bets of football. The triple case of the 1 X 2

Jun 15

With two proved only ones it seems to be easy, but the thing is complicated a bit when we face a football match with three possible ends. In this case, the method to continuing is very similar, but adding the possibility of the tie. Let’s consider to illustrate this situation the example of the Athletic of Bilbao against Valencia CF that we were mentioning more above. Again, we force in our equations that the prize in all the cases is the same. Thus:

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Consequently, if we decide to put again 10 eurillos to the Athletic, we will have to play the following thing in the complementary results:

Stake Joins = 10 x 2.2 / 4.1 = 5.37 Euros

Stake Valencia = 10 x 2.2 / 4.3 = 5.12 Euros

Definitively, let’s agree bets for value of 10 + 5.37 + 5.12 = 20.49 Euros. Let’s examine what happens in each of the possible results:

If he conquers the Athletic we obtain a prize of 2.2 x 10 = 22 Euros
If they tie, the prize is of 4.1 x 5.37 = 22.01 Euros
If it gains the Valencia the prize is of 4.3 x 5.12 = 22.01 Euros

We have in three cases prizes of 22 Euros; the smallest differences are owed to redondeos, with more decimals they disappear. The total incurred expenses are of 20.49. So it happens what happens, we obtain 1.51 Euros.

The Directional Bets

Martingale | Comments Off on The Directional Bets

Jun 08

The directional bets consist of betting simply on a result. Behind the basic mechanism of the bets sublies: we put money in favour of certain team, if I win I take it to myself multiplied for the quota, if not, I lose it. We play, so, simply against the probability of the result, something that the houses of bets handle to the perfection.

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Does economic sense make bet hereby?

Yes, in the only situation: when the implicit probability of the quota that offers us the house of bets performs lower than the real probability of which the result happens. In this case, it is said that the bet has value.

With an example, let’s imagine a football match: Royal Company – Royal Betis Balompi√©. Let’s assume that the quota for the victory of the Royal Company is of 2. This means that the probability that the house of bets assigns to this result is 50 %. Therefore, only it has felt to bet if the royal probability of which the Royal one conquers the Betis is superior to 50 %.

This one is not a frequent situation, but rather on the contrary. As we explain previously, the houses of bets have enormous human and technical means, so they handle the statistics and the probability better than anybody. Nevertheless, yes it happens in occasions that the house of bets sees forced to move the quotas out of what the statistics marks them, and the erroneous estimations of the mass can create this situation precisely of apostantes. If a high part of the money centers in certain results, it is very habitual that the house of bets modifies the quotas of the complementary results to make them more attractive to other apostantes and to balance his risk, offering hereby an opportunity of long-term profit.

Again with our example, if most of the money of the bets goes to ties or victories of the Betis, our house of bets can choose to offer quotas of 2.2 ó 2.4 that assume implicit probabilities of 45 % and 42 % respectively. With these quotas and a royal probability of 50 % it makes the whole sense of the world bet for the Royal Company. The bet offers, so, value to the apostante, in Anglo-Saxon terms, his expected value or awaited value is positive. To evaluate them, we have elaborated this method of analysis of the value of the sports bets.

With this mechanism, the individual apostante helps to the house of bets to re-balance the market, and is positioned of fact in opposition to other apostantes.

Martingale method dates from the 18th century, originating in France. This method was designed for singles with 50% chance, like throwing a coin. The strategy consists in choosing a girl, Heads or tails and doubling the stake after each loss, so that when the first page plus gain recover lost profits.

We can see below the 4 steps to using this system we obtained a profit of 80 euros, even though we lost 3 out of 4 bets placed.

This system provides the necessary safety even unlucky punters who managed to win very often. Diagram above presents the system using relatively small share, but imagine using the system for a few tickets with a large share ..

Important and essential thing to remember is that the stakes should be chosen to make enough money in the bank remains wrong even if 5 or 6 consecutive bets.

Martingale system is invincible when used by an experienced gambler follow the rules and do not deviate from the regulation.


The first bet stake 10 euros – lost
The second bet stake 20 euros – lost
The third bet stake 40 euros – lost
The fourth bet stake 80 euros- won

If a football bet, you can choose a team and will count as equal, for example. To comply with the method of betting the amount bet doubles after each stage and of course is betting on the same team.
After every team makes a draw, all you the choice of this team, inspiration, study charts and odds offered by bookmakers. Usually these rates are above 3.00 at a draw back so the calculation above if you would get the fourth bet you win 240-80 (bet 4) – 70 (previous bet) = 90 lei.