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The bets in 2018 – Portugal

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Feb 21

The bets in 2018 – Portugal

This time we are going to discuss what awaits us in 2018 betting level, we will speak in the specific case of Portugal, and we will pass through Europe and the rest of the world in a following article!
Initially we started by addressing the question of Portugal and what to expect from sports betting in our country.
We will later address the future of betting in a more global way, let alone talk about what is done abroad and what to expect in 2018 abroad.
We will divide in several articles, but now we start with the one that does not say more respect, Portugal.
Well, a lot was expected in 2017, and let’s say I was really disillusioned that there were no more players in the sports betting market, and some who entered just went to the Casino for example.
In 2017 we also obtained the hybrid homes, many opted for this option or strand in the Portuguese market. Covering sports betting, and also taking advantage of the Casino and online casino games.
We can not forget that Poker is present and licensed in Portugal online, and let’s say it was even in late 2017 that we got the main novelty, the shared liquidity …
This situation only confirmed itself in December, allowing countries that enter into this agreement between countries such as Portugal, Italy, Spain and France to share their liquidity. The houses are now missing, and it has already been shaken up, especially houses that are operating in several regulated countries that belong to the agreement.
I believe that in 2018 and at this point we can have the main “scramble” or better news. We should certainly have news of the houses applying to be able to operate under these special conditions.
Poker may even be the main thing in 2018, as the steps taken and the recent news, we can see for example Pokerstars one of the candidates to be one of the first to obtain this special license for shared liquidity. There is only one detail to solve, but we want this small stone in the shoe to be overcome in the first months of 2018.

Let’s say that there for the summer we can see Poker taking the first steps in shared liquidity in Portugal.

This brings me to a point, I believe that 2018 we can begin to “dream”, since the shared liquidity is taking the first steps and if it succeeds, I want to believe that we can have news of houses that offer this type of product, Trading?
Well, I do not even know if I have the courage to cause heartbeats in the hearts of Portuguese traders, but if liquidity in Poker succeeds, I believe what steps will be taken in that direction. Now will Betfair want to enter a regulated market? In shared liquidity only in certain countries? Does Betfair have the necessary logistics or an interest in implementing them to meet the requirements?
Well, they are answers that I would like to give you, but I do not have any contact like Betfair, nor do I have the slightest idea of ​​what’s going on in the minds of the company’s CEO. But the only thing I know, is that they know that the Portuguese market can be important. Let’s see the Betfair itself has someone in Portugal its representative and I want to believe that many are those who looked good to return to the Trading.
Being very sincere a happy ending for the Trading, I do not believe that it is already in 2018, but I believe that by the end of the year, after the success or not in the Poker, we can have news.
All this situation leads me to think, and then …. The other bookies that had been advertised for some time and that suddenly the news seems to be “ironed out”?
Well I’ll start with the one with the serious news, SCML announced to go online, PLACARD version online, or something different, we do not know but if entering will be to “kill” the market. SCML has formed and formed a company and a company, but only in this way can it be regulated in bets through our regulator SRIJ, in order to exploit the online market.
As we have had concrete evidence of this upcoming possible online entry, let’s say we can expect news in this regard. PLACARD online, another format is my only doubt, but sure that by the end of 2018 we will have SCML to go online.
Well, just a little, the current and still president of SCML has now applied for the presidency of the Portuguese political party – PSD, and obviously his attention is centered on this candidacy and in future to be Prime Minister of Portugal, in the next elections.
Well it’s something I do not like to talk about, it’s about politics, but let’s just say that the competition is fierce by the party leadership (PSD) but I believe that with all this, the roles may be standing on the desk until this question is resolved.
Well with this it costs me to advance with a forecast of the exit of the SCML for online, but if Santa Lopes wins, somebody later will make the decision, but it will be much later. In this scenario, estico and much, there towards the end of 20

Bets in 2018 – International, North and South American Panorama

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Feb 21

Bets in 2018 – International, North and South American Panorama

We came back during the first article on what to expect from online betting in 2018.

If I made futurology in relation to the panorama of Portugal, maybe, but I think that during the course of the year, we can see some subjects that I approached to be referenced in the news about the bets.
Now we are going to approach the international scene obviously speaking on the state of betting in Europe still with connections to the subject of today and speak of the United Kingdom and we will travel to the North and South American continent.
This week, we were approached and it seems that it is now easy to talk about it, with issues of movements, or better news nothing encouraging for those who are in Brazil.
I had in mind to say in this article what I thought, but now I’m late, because one of the news is already out, Skrill and Neteller do not accept deposits of bookies.
All this leads to legislation in the UK and adding the Brexit issue, may be influencing and quite the decisions of houses.
Another news that goes to what I thought and once again has already appeared, and houses like Bet365 may be having more difficulties than previously thought. After changing all the bonus schemes and affiliation, news about the cancellation of bets, only corroborate my idea on this subject.
Many have already been the complaints that bet365 had and that once distanced itself by not doing like the others, is entering the same path. It eliminates bets when it was once mistaken and even protected the bettor.
Did you become like the others? We know that no, because the brand vs. bettor relationship is still consolidated, but I believe that if there are more of these, and the marketing that I have seen against this particular house may bring more discomfort.
The news that the CEO of bet365 makes a lot of money, also does not pay anything for the credibility of the house. I want to want the house may be experiencing difficulties. Competition from Russia, and not only, laws in the Uk increasingly rigid, and the fact of having to pay a lot tax where entered into regulated countries.
The investment may not be paying off and we may see some monetization maneuvers in the house, and you can go through the offered bonuses, affiliations and even “draw” some losses in the betting part itself. And the odds are already made.
It is not at all my aim to speak ill of bet365 is to just check the news and think a little beyond them. Our critical spirit forces us to think about it and gives us that same freedom. It may be unfounded but at the very least it is strange, do not you agree?

We return to the Europe – UK issue!

Things are getting tight, and the issue South American countries are suffering from restrictions caused in Europe itself, such as the UK gambling ect ect. Let’s say fragments of the decisions that have to be taken if they want to operate in the UK. Obviously South American countries are “taking” with these decisions and things get tighter every time.
Coming back to Portugal, now, Europe, with the legalization path, taxing online betting, the houses are being forced to adjust. In this process the only “loser” will be the bettor. Less Bonus, less offers, less conditions, last but not least … less “fat” odds.
We had a difficult time and the issue this week of the virtual wallets, comes to beat what I thought.

The panorama of online betting may even change!

Yes, I think so, I start by saying that you will almost have to go through a virtual specific currency! Will it then be converted into conversion rates? Perhaps, Bitcoin is still there and because it is not a solution in the short and medium term.
The creation and a new specific currency? I believe, but at this moment after Bitcoin things are tighter on this path. I do not think they will allow another coin to grow like that all of a sudden.
After all this news in Brazil and beyond, I believe we may also suffer something from this. We hope to see you!
Well, it is no wonder that I know there are at least two houses working with Bitcoins. I believe I can go there, but I still say more, there is another solution well ahead of our eyes ..
Brokers, yes!
I look at the market and the news always looking for the why. And in the financial market where millions are made, the steps are well given without stepping on traps or slippery terrain!
Before this everything happened we were surprised and bombarded with brokers, some even got a made, enter for oddsportal for example …
Good big step, but everything in my view has a logic, was invested in the disclosure, and now is the time to reap the rewards.
So you took a step before the “tragedy”? Is there a step, a solution before something happens where it goes through this solution?
“Wow” the malta who walks in this really knows how to move in the betting world and knows well how to act ahead of time is not it?
I can see the correlation in these news and these ads, and I realize that the market is getting quite upset. And my projection for 2018 at the international level will be even to change the paradigm of online betting as we know them today.

The transition is being made slowly, we’re adjusting. Replace:

Legislation in the countries in europe
Legislation in South American countries
Regulators have put more rigid rules, UK gambling and European Commission, Brexit case!
Appearance of the brokers, thus, coming from nowhere, with publicity.
Virtual wallets to be blocked for these purposes
Emergence of bookies accept Crypt coins
Skrill and Neteller itself accept Bitcoins

In short, we will see a change in bets during the course of this year 2018. We may even change certain opinions on certain things, so we can continue in the online betting world-
The right thing is that the brokers have come to stay, and will be by now in 2018 the right choice. Another important issue that I will mention next is the gambler’s question! Will the gambler continue, some will give up, or will they take the next step?
Questions that only time can answer, but it is certain that I will give my humble opinion, and those who are “well” in the bets these will hardly leave the way.
I’ve even seen videos talking about it, it could be the driving news to quit amateurism and seek out specialization. Many will take the next step to becoming professionals. Others with the lack of means and above all always in the shadow of others, may leave this world, which I believe is the most sensible solution.
Others have continued and will wait for more news, go on the crest of the wave until they see where they can reach. Many have already left, others have emigrated and others have left this world and passed up and just being playful gamblers.
It is hoped that many will give up and many will continue to invest in their training and above all to move towards professionalism. But this leads me to an issue!
Without playful gamblers, how will bookmakers survive?
This is the question that I ask myself … Without those who bet only by betting, without any knowledge of what they are doing, how is a bookmaker going to survive only with professionals on the ground?
Simple answer …. Do you know how the stock exchange works? Well I think that will happen, we will get to the point of buying and selling tick’s? But wait …. But do not many already do this? Can Trading be at an advantage at this time in the future? Do not know…
Well, I can not respond coherently because I do not have the crystal ball, but I know that the future is black for amateurs and appealing to professionals and future professionals. The houses will have to be shaped, put in another position, because they will have more professionals on the other side than amateurs.
Can you be foolish enough to say that? It may, but one thing that makes me think that amateurs will always “help” the houses is that they exist …. Regulated markets.
The tendency is for a regulated market to become more comprehensive, and with competition it may open up more room for lowering fees for example. Better conditions for bettors, slightly higher odds and with that bring back playful gamblers to the online.
But for this to work the balance has to be balanced, and in the matter of regulation, it is a bit late, but the big houses are already regulated in the right places for example. I see that the houses also took a step towards their profitability, many assumed unbearable rates to take over the market in certain countries.
I believe that the balance can be balanced later but during this “general change” we can see some decompensation between the parties, the bettor and the bookmakers.
If the bettor is an attentive and reasonable bettor, I think he will “get away” from this possible conflict that I think will soon happen. But I also report that this process is scarcely noticed, because all the interests involved in this will be that “malta do not be surprised from here out!”
Shall we drift a little? Yes, maybe, but I think the betting world is going to change, slowly, and with us, sure.
The fight will be even more difficult, but I believe that soon we will all be adjusted to the new reality, houses and bettors.

Bookies is right but what about brokers?

Well these will have more customers like never before, and now is the right time to bet on the “fundraising” of this service that will solve many problems of many players at this time.
What will be cheaper will be the professional gamblers’ offerings to investors because there will be more, but the good and proven ones in the market can see their barrel rise …
There is no need to talk about the South American issue, and I will also draw the Americans to the same approach …
In the south, things will increasingly move towards legalization, many will flee to the brokers to continue betting and thus becoming many professionals of them. Others will always live on the bale of what the houses will do after the legislation.
Some South American countries are already regulated, and from the feedback that I have had even been easy to change. The question was even about the issue of the currency and it was more complicated to live from betting.
Countries that are not yet regulated will take the next step, when others start presenting concrete revenue data, countries such as Brazil and Peru with a tradition in betting may follow the steps taken by them.
Here we will see how this step will be, but I believe it will be very similar to Portugal – High rates – Soon few houses to invest, but that could improve over time …
The United States, and here I put together with this question, there is much talk about the legalization of gambling there. Many states are already struggling for this, and many are already on the verge of being able to do so. The issue of online and very complex in the US, but I believe a President Trump things can be resolved by then.
As you know Trump had or has a Casino, and he sees the question of betting differently. The revenue generated from this in the US I believe should be astronomical should bets be legalized. I believe that many houses would pay for this world and the other to be able to operate there!
Trump’s question is this: does he no longer like people getting into their own places than they do at home? This is my doubt, but I believe maybe not in 2018, but in the very near future the issue online betting in the US will be resolved for good.
Good and this is how I end this series of two articles on what to expect online betting in 2018 and in many of the cases we went to the future rambling who knows a little!
I hope you have enjoyed the “my” idea, but it is no more than that, it is my opinion and you also take some time to reflect on sports betting in the world and in Portugal.
I know this article was something extensive, I apologize, but I would have to address all these aspects that I have addressed.


Sport Betting Articles | Comments Off on Analytical≠Statistics

Feb 21


Let’s go to another article that I think can help those who read us and I also believe that it can bring controversy.

But let’s get to it!
Every day we hear about statistics and statistical analyzes and even “analytics” I put in English because the translation does not highlight the importance of the word.
Today’s title of this article is simple “Stats” are different from “analytics”.
A lot of you must be thinking, but is not it the same thing?


Let’s start with a small example, the “Stats” are concrete data of what happened in the game.
For example: The A team scored more than 2.5 goals at home! The B team scored more than 1.75 goals away.
These are “Stats” are numbers that “really” happen, it is based on these numbers that we can see what the teams can actually do.
Stats are very important for the study of a sporting event, be it football, basketball or other sport.
Many bettors say “I do not look at statistics” but many look and give a certain value!
Now that we already know what “Stats” has come to the fore an old question! Should one or not look at the statistics?
Attention this is my opinion, I think we should “look” and ponder over them. They may not have much relevance, but they can be decisive. As I said many bettors do not look at the statistics, but as we said in previous articles, is the adopted method of these same bettors.
Somehow and here I call attention to “Stats” can mislead you! Yes, a team there to score more than 3.5 goals at home does not mean that they will do it in that game, right?
As in any analysis the “Stats” should always be “weighing” decision and not “supreme truth”. I believe that a good qualitative analysis by adding the “Stats” we can look at this event in another way.
Another question arises, the “Stats” that we have access to the bookies themselves also have them! Yes it’s true, and they still have more data and with “n” times back!
The houses have a huge base date, you are just starting in front of us in this requirement. But then the qualitative part may be missing and then only the “man” can intervene at least for now!

Back to the subject…

Those who read us should always look at the “Stats” in a soft, soft way, as they please, should ponder them and not make use of them in their bets.
Many are carried away by the “Stats” but friends the importance of that event can change and much this question!
Let’s take another example to verify that the “Stats” should be weighted!
Let’s imagine that team A has the 3.5-goal average at home! But the forward, his best scorer is injured, and only he has 10 goals scored!
Do not think that the average of goals expected for this game should be lowered in thesis?
I do it, low down the average, if the best scorer is out, we can not expect something similar if the “Stats” do not say they will have more goals!

ATTENTION! – Look at whether or not that player was in this totality of goals, this factor is very important!

As this little explanation comes, it already gives “water by the beard”. That’s why many bettors do not look at the Stats because they are “misleading” and at the same time so assertive!
I think that new punters should be especially careful with the “Stats” and advice I give you is: do not look like a real truth, equalize the Stats in your study! Do not look at them, try to explain them so that they help you in your study and do not deceive you!
It was easier said simply, do not look at the “Stats” – But I would be making a mistake in saying this, because we have to look a little at them giving the “real” importance to us!
In short, dear bettors we have to give the importance that we want to give ourselves, and the real value of them!
I think it has become clear, all about the famous “Stats”!
Now let’s see why “Stats” are not the same as “analytics”!
Analytics are analyzes and projections based on the “Stats”
Those who use analytics a lot are the big computers that bookmakers have and use to predict the likely outcome of that event.
The houses use these analytics as nobody else because without them the houses were at the mercy of a bettor!
Predicting an event like football is very complicated, knowing what the 11’s on each side are going to do is very complex. Knowing if there will be more than 2.5 goals is also not easy!
So the houses use statistical models and use analytics to predict what can happen in the game.
Statistical models “analyze” the Stats first and then correlate with “analytics” and then assume various weights and functions to arrive at an “approximation”!
Does it seem confusing? Yes but for a mathematician it is something that is simple! Believe that these intelligence systems, as I call them, were designed by great mathematicians.
It is usual to walk around betting systems on the basis of these mathematical models, but of course it requires a lot of work and for us “common” bettors is out of our reach!
Computers formulas and models are expensive and cost a lot of money and only homes can own.
We bettors can only predict 10% at most by comparing ourselves with these intelligence systems.

And now the most curious, the Man is also wrong, is inattentive, tired, distracted … and may not be able to handle the message!

The best thing to blame could be the “trainee” who did not give him all the information about that event!
Geez, after all the bookmakers system is not that good, is it?
Well today a slightly shorter article, but just to let you think, that there are no perfect systems, nor the Stats are the reason of the whole truth!
The houses with the same great systems err, and you have testimonies of it!
So the fight may not be as unequal as previously thought, and in my view, we just have to be in the right place at the right time and put a bet on the right spot …. To bet to win!
For these and others that many continue in this fight and many “make life” of it!
Good week, good bets.

Betting World is Changing, Do You Choose Your Side?

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Feb 21

Betting World is Changing, Do You Choose Your Side?

Today we bring another article where we question the current world in sports betting.

In a summarized way approaching what is really changing in sports betting, we will try to clarify how and in what way we will have to put ourselves in this same world or choose a possible side!
Well there are huge surprises that we have come to watch, since the exit of the e-wallets in Brazil, and the regulations in the European countries. Adding that the only one who “loses” is really the bettor.

What will this have to do to survive in this changing world every day?

We started with Brazilians, who suddenly felt the drama of sports betting.
With the exit of e-wallets from Brazil, Brazilians are obliged to withdraw money from the houses via e- wallets, until the middle of February. Then I wonder. Will not the houses miss this money and these bettors?
Yes, they will resent knowing that the Brazilian market is “wind up” and that sports betting grows every day in the Brazilian population.
Now the houses have been forced to find ways to continue to “receive” the money from these bettors, seeing themselves forced to adapt very different strategies. Talking about boleto is the first solution and among other solutions of other e-wallets still unreliable and well-known.
The question is? Will this bring more costs associated with homes and where will this be? In odds, of course. Rates? Yes too, most likely the homes will change their rates of withdrawal and even deposit – Get ready!
In short, who takes with the change and will have to bear all costs will be even the bettor, Brazilian in this specific case …
Who’s to blame? UK law is tougher than ever and they are not making life easier for homes and businesses in them.
The next step will be the legalization of sports betting in Brazil, where many say it’s coming soon, others believe it will take some time, but there are already solutions!
It is no wonder that certain news and publicity comes before the cataclysm, whoever is in this world is not sleeping, huge amounts of money are involved and huge investments have been made, and you have to be profitable with the product you are proposing!


Yes I think this will be the overall solution for everyone in the future of betting. Whether you are on the regulated market or who are constantly being limited in European homes.
Even the issue of withdrawals and deposits, here also has costs, but the cost-benefit ratio is enormous. Only the fact that you can put the bet there is better odds on the “World Wide” market is undoubtedly the best solution for the times that come there.
I lack the legal part to be able to speak coherently, and I advise those who are thinking of this solution to be informed in this requirement before entering a broker.
In “theory” betting on a broker is to give an order for someone, person or software, to make that bet for you. Well in practice we are not betting directly, we only give an order to a software so that it bets by itself.
Here is something and only the “detail” that can protect us, especially those behind regulated markets.
The other issue, if it is not legal, will have to be the institutions themselves to take the necessary steps to prevent this from happening. We talk from the restriction to the site address through the country’s ISPs.
Another will be the regulator himself who takes a position to stop these situations, I say again, if it is illegal. From warnings, fines, in short everything that the Law can predict in this specific field.
Good and now the things that make me think, these brokers are still there, and some bookies too, knowing that they are not regulated in these countries.
So, I ask myself, the regulators, and the States are asleep?
Hmm…. Continuous with no answer to give you …
Well, I’m going to leave this question in the air and ask them to try to reflect a little on this. But for now it only occurs to me a hypothesis, in case the regulator picks some bettor to do something illegal this will serve as an example, wherever and in what country.
This is the part that makes me more worried and I see, whoever it may be, it can serve as an example if you are accused of doing something illegal in relation to sports betting! It will serve as an example, you may want to!

Climate of fear?

Well I did not mean it that way, but we lived a little without knowing what to do, or better know, to be hostages of a Law that is more than outdated and that does not serve the interests of bettors nor bookies that enter the market regulated.
At this moment the regulator is asking everyone to help change this same Law. There are several email’s that the regulator may be receiving, as I believe that many are giving their opinion and manifesting themselves in some way against this Law which is more than outdated.
I note that everyone can contribute, just go to the website of our regulator SRIJ – there is an email created for this purpose!
One point to keep, and to clarify, at least I felt that there is dialogue between the regulator and the Portuguese gamblers, which in my view we can all win. This attitude leaves me somewhat more relaxed than in Portugal we may have in the next Law on sports betting.
Since we speak in Portugal and on this specific case, many changes we will have to pass even more sports to bet, horses for example, and new entries of players in the market. Now let’s see what the next Law can “adjust” or not in what we bettors want, which is only higher odds and fairer markets and affordable rates at all.
The issue of Trading that is slow to quit, we only saw moves in Poker with the so-called Shared Liquidity, it takes time to solve! The technical requirements for Poker are now available for consultation at our regulator – SRIJ
We will have to wait, without a doubt, we are “waiting” for some 3 years with no future for Portuguese gamblers and many have been forced to go to the foreigner and others simply seek other forms of extra income.

And with that the State lost a lot of income ….

This betting world is really changing, and the gambler, as I wrote earlier, is suffering from it. I always advise the best, which is to be aware of what is done and the consequences that this attitude can bring you.
I see a lot of gamblers not having a clue what they’re doing, and getting ready to be “caught up in the curve” or being mocked. I advise very carefully and be aware of what they promise or offer.
It is not easy to get out of this impasse but let’s see others succeed in sports bets with market-proofs, many have anticipated these situations and now it’s up to you to see what the rest will do.
In my humble opinion, I believe that more and more the bettors will separate, because they will notice. Many take up the challenge and want to go further, others remain credulous and faithful to what they have. But others, and especially those who have been showing more difficulties in this world, will give up and move on to another hobby.
I believe that with this “separation” caused by the current world of online betting can bring even more difficulties and separations in the sector.
We will certainly see several gamblers, companies whatever it is that is connected to the betting world to have to opt for a way. Many will turn to the right others to the left and others will move on, now it remains to know and then only time will tell, so that “side” is the right way and the best choice to take.
I leave a piece of advice at this crossroads that we live in right now, the choice seems difficult but it is not! Because? Simple, the choice will have to be made with your well-being and awareness and the choice becomes obvious. And yet a caveat will always be the possibility to return to the crossroads and choose another direction.
Make your choices and options right now as the betting world is changing. The reality is bare and raw, but many look sideways and whistle, and time is running out.
I hope you have enjoyed this article, where I tried to address the current moment of sports betting and the future and the feeling of a bettor trapped at the crossroads created by the online betting market itself.

How to get Profits in Football Betting in Portugal

Sport Betting Articles | Comments Off on How to get Profits in Football Betting in Portugal

Feb 21

How to get Profits in Football Betting in Portugal

After our last Podcast, there were many requests for it to explain how it was doing to make a profit in Portugal.

First of all, to say that to make a profit depends always on the perspective of each one, but the accounts are easy to do, even if it is a euro difference, it is always profit for me.
Now that you realize if the “spent” time on the bets may or may not be profitable, but that’s another story. Obviously we all like to see every minute income spent on sports betting.
I have no science whatsoever to be able to “get away” from the minimalist oddities that the houses in Portugal offer me, these are soon condemned to be always like that.
It honestly costs to see what they offer out there comparing with what they offer us inside, and here we can do nothing.
We all know by the accounts that we have been doing right at the beginning of the regulation, that to make a profit in Portugal, we have to make up about 80% of all the bets we make.
This is already a great handicap, and this does not protect us against any draw, but it does force us to be different and to change our paradigm in the bets.

I advise anyone who chooses to be profitable in Portugal to forget all the theories that are out there, since these will never have future in the regulated market

Portuguese. Fair Lines or Caesar Lines, betting on early market’s, cash out with puntrading, it’s all good theories out there, for the unregulated markets, in Portugal everything is already more than “Fair” and the odds have already opened “kneaded “So forget it!
I will then try to explain how I do to be profitable, at least take advantage of the past time looking at the bets nowadays.
First, I had to totally change my way to “get value” my EV + became minimalist for example.
Sometimes I do not even look at the odds as long as they are above 1.50 and this is already my first rule that I share for you. In simple bets I only go on odds above 1.50.
But I am now going to share how I put myself in the market and try to get some money from’s and betclic’s from this Portugal.
I make simple, multiple bets and I’ll get value from LIVE!
I will divide by topics, each of these approaches.

Single bets:

As I have said in simple bets, sometimes they force me to look at the odds, it also forces me to have to analyze more games I once analyzed.
First rule is the odds that “like” in the pre live in simple bets, yes odds of 1.50 is my limit.
If it is below that, I move on to the next phase of this specific game, for multiple bets, where I will see if I can combine with another bet, but we are already going.
When betting more increase my risk of making mistakes, that’s for sure, that’s where my selection of games comes in, and that’s where I am in the games and the leagues I’m with, minimizing the risk as much as I can, and if I can.
Another thing I do is that I can not move for the day’s gains, or the week, because they are minimal, and sometimes I do not look at the numbers until the end of the month, otherwise it will force me to get into more games and to expose me even more to my bank.
Stakes, well, here’s where the point may be, in my simple bets my stakes are higher than they should be.
Yes I know I am going against everything that is taught and should be done, but how do I withdraw value even eaten by the odds if I do not increase my exposure?
The harder I had to figure out and deal with, it will be the hardest part to explain as well, sometimes the stakes can tinker the bank a little by leveraging it or decimating it.
In theory all this is NOT to be done, yes I know, but if I can minimize the error, I may be taking the risk for certain, being aware that I can also lose a lot.

Everything is a risk, and the bets too!

So in short, in my simple bets, I flee to all that is taught, but “I hang myself” in my experience and the insight that the years have given me.
Multiple bets
I have already said that this was my second way of extracting value from a mine with little ore.
When I study games and in which I decide for some market and the odds are very low (less than 1.50) together with others, pairing them thus obtaining higher odds and using only one stake.
Well it seems like I’m not saying anything new, but sometimes just this way I can extract some value and pay for the time I throw back from the study and the betting.
So how do I do, first together an odd that I consider the right type, my reference bets, the one I think will be won for sure. Together it with another game with a slightly higher odd.
So I can put the two most profitable games and put a stake just without letting me eat at the lowest odds and having to raise my stakes and automatically expose myself to the game.
The multiples must always take into account and enjoy games at the same time, so that they can have a sense of how the bet is running, and of course they can close it manually if necessary and if they succeed.
Advice only, do not use very low odds, type 1.14, try to use odds above 1.27; 1.28 like that odd of that bet safer for you. Then add another one slightly higher since they get a good odd of 1.62; 1.68 around that. Evaluate this risk vs possible gains.
I do not triple, it’s very rare indeed, because I think it’s too much for me, if I have to do it, it’s better to make the “famous scratch card” and put together some good teams and get a higher stake and stake a little stake.

Live betting

This was my last phase that I had to solve to try to squeeze more the existing market in Portugal. I confess that I am not the best “expert” of the bets on Live, but I have seen a lot and I have already learned to see many to “work” this added value.
I started very slowly with small stakes, and I notice that this is how it should be done. So I always enjoyed the games I had studied and get into those games.
Here I use my Fair Line, I hope the house puts the line at the price they put out there and I enter the market. Seeing the game makes all the difference and observing well the incidences of the game. I confess that I see and leave soon after making my bet, superstitions!
Something that is confusing to me is the VAR in some games of the league NOS, we get all the speculation that was scored and then it is annulled, anyway! The houses sometimes only pick up the market after some time, and with that the odds do not even move in that space of time.
In Live betting it is necessary to “grow” one thing I had the most to learn is to be as calm as possible, and sometimes to put up with the odd value that we want. Sometimes I even go ahead of the PC so I do not make mistakes and get in early than I want.
I confess that it is the most difficult and I know that it is not my beach, but with training I finally managed to be more “calm” and enter only when I want and the odd that I want.
Lack of talk of the stakes I use in Live, it would be silly if I put Stakes bigger than the ones I do in simple, because I know right away that in Live I make more mistakes than in Pre Live. So my Stake takes a radical cut and just put the value that interests me to achieve that odd.
Basically it will be just this, I had to adapt and the only thing I did was to monetize 3 times the games I study. I simply use Live’s multiple and simple to have 3x more income than if I were to bet normally.
I have to be honest, I have games that things do not go well, and then you can say that I have 3x more chances to go on a perch. Yes, it is true and it has already happened to me. But then I try to react in the same way as when I lose a simple in pre-live with an average stake that is moving on and getting out of a bad run.
Basically the process that I used, will simply seek a multiplication of the time invested in betting and spread by the 3 options that the houses give me to bet – Pre Live, Live and multiple.
My example I did not have to be yours, but one thing is certain, whatever method is used, we are always more exposed to risk and “wear” our bank.
Another thing I also noticed, is that if we do a lot of Live’s I start getting tired and we start to see things wrong sometimes and I advise not to abuse Live’s
I repeat, use and abuse but do not forget and be very careful, do as I calmly experiment with ridiculous stakes up and gain confidence.
If this is the ideal method to be a winner in Portuguese odds, no, it is not, but it is certain that I try to minimize and adapt to what the market offers me at the moment.

It has not been easy and this method has been tested for some time, and I can say that things do not go so badly!

It scares me when I compare, if I were to do the same with foreign odds, and then I get a bit discouraged, but let’s see what the future holds for us.
Well I hope you liked it, today we went a bit looking for solutions or rather a solution that “I created” to try to get minimum monetization in the time that I bet on online betting and football in particular.
I hope you have enjoyed it and I am here for future questions that you want to ask with doubts or even help, they are always welcome!

The two ways to bet

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Feb 21

The two ways to bet

In this world of betting there are two ways to do it: gambling by betting on the “felling” only, and betting rationally

In gambling, one should look for excitement and fun, nothing more, this is what bookmakers sell, excitement.
This method of betting (almost) always results in the total destruction of the bank and in successive deposits. If this is what we are looking for we must take into account that the risk of losing all the money is very high and the most certain is that it disappears.

We must set a maximum amount to spend for a certain period of time, the amount only each one can define it because it will be directly related to the available capital of the same.

In the second method described by me, we bet to make a profit. For this it is necessary to bet in a rational way, as rational as possible.
First of all it is necessary to register to register all our bets, all our movements in a more detailed way possible, all the bets made, the markets of the same, the odds, championships, only thus registering everything to the detail we can see where we have advantage and where our errors are, so that we can correct them.
It has to be clear what our sport, our market, our championship.
Some are good at tennis, others at bascket, others dominate various sports, others dominate handicaps, unders / overs, and so on. It’s where we are strong that we have to bet. If we stick to betting on something that we have a clear disadvantage this starts to turn to gambling. There must be discipline!
After finding our market, our “area” where we will act, we will study it. This requires obtaining information as much as possible.
It is crucial to know the true meaning of information. Information is data capable of removing uncertainty, helping us to make a decision. By taking into account data that do not constitute information we are equating something that besides not being useful to us makes our final decision less correct and accurate.
After the decision made, the prognosis made, we have to bet so that we have value in our bet.

Without value it is not worth betting, it will only be negative for us.

If we are going to bet on the victory of a team, take a risk therefore the investment have to justify the risk run. Finding real value on a bet is the most difficult and complex in this betting world, but that’s what will make all the difference.
If we look for EV + we can only bet on that. It is not worth anything to bet without the value of our side, we can be hitting some prognostics, but in the long term this will lead us to an EV-, or precisely the opposite path.
Once we find our EV + strategy we have to adapt it to a banking management method.

Banking management will dictate a large part of our success. It must be adjusted according to the manner of each one, fulfilling norms that allow us safety in case of a “bad run”.

Banking management is meant to make sure that if things go wrong for a while we will not lose our bankroll, and if things are going well, it will give us more profit. There are many different methods of banking management, it is just each one choosing what suits him best.
Having said all this is enough for each one to choose the path that wants to follow, whatever the chosen one must be carried out with responsibility, taking into account that it is a dangerous world where sometimes we are close to the abyss and we do not repair, and with discipline, because only then can we achieve our goals.

Player wins huge Jackpot

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Feb 21

Player wins huge Jackpot of € 4,600,000 on Bet365

In Bet365 Bingo, the nickname player “taloo1” was certainly a dream Christmas, since on Christmas Eve he won a Progressive Jackpot of € 4,600,000

This amazing and fantastic prize was won in the Clover Rollover – a Slot machine game in which players can try to imitate the Irish feat by turning the Slot machine. “Taaloo1” was lucky enough to spin five clover symbols and as such managed to win the fantastic Jackpot.
Realizing that he was going to win the progressive jackpot, “taaloo1” was understandably lively and shocked at the same time.
The magnitude of the win is so great that he still does not believe … and as such claims he has not made any immediate plans for what he will do to his prize money. One thing is for sure, you’re going to have a luxury party!

Clover Rollover is just one of an extensive range of Slots available to Bet365 Bingo players.

Games like the Big Top Tombola, Pirate Plunder and Snow Queen’s Magic also offer huge progressive jackpots – where the prize money continues to grow with each passing day.
About Bet365 Bingo

You’ll find Bingo 90 balls, 80 balls and 75 games on Bet365 along with great deals and a wide variety of games to enjoy including Slots, Roulette and Scratch Cards.

Bet365 is one of the largest online gaming groups in the world with more than five million customers worldwide.

Bet365 offers games for every bank and a bingo experience that is second to none. The Group employs more than 1,400 people and is the UK’s seventh largest private company.
At the eGaming Review Awards 2010, Bet365 was named “Operator of the Year” and “Casino Operator of the Year”, also received the award for best performance of its site.

The company also entered the top of eGaming Review’s Annual Power 50.

Betting Log File

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Feb 21

Betting Log File

The Excel file displayed serves to accurately record all bets placed by a bettor over time.

This file is prepared for the registration of almost 10,000 bets, along which you can see, through graphics, our performance in each sport, market or month according to the preferences. It should be noted that the charts update automatically for each bet made.


The file is divided into 7 different sheets, which I will describe:

A month
By sport
By market
Trading Charts

The “Data” sheet is used to place all kind of information necessary for entering data in the “Bets” sheet. For the sake of testing, various information is already entered in the tables, but you can and should delete all the information you are not interested in and just put the data you work with, that is, put sports, markets, leagues and houses with that you make the bets. It is not advisable to delete the information contained in the column “Result”, type of bet and “Betting Month”

In addition, you must place your starting balance and the percentage of the bank you want to risk on each bet. Of course, if you do not have a fixed betting unit, you should ignore this value.

In the “Bets” sheet you must enter all the information of your bets. In the “House”, “Sports”, “League”, “Market” and “Result” columns the values to be entered are displayed in a list that will appear as soon as you load the desired cell. The displayed values are the values that you entered in the “Data” sheet. This ensures that the data will be treated evenly, that is, the values shown in the graphs will be correct and grouped. In this sheet there are some hidden columns (for example column C and D), but you have to keep them as they are “hidden” some sub-calculations that have no interest for your bets. You must also enter the values of “Date”, “Odds” and “Value Amount”. In addition all the formulas are protected against any “deletes”.
In the “For sport” sheet, your betting performance is shown through a chart. In order for this chart to be consistent with your bets you must place the respective sport in all bets that you make
On the “Per market” sheet, your betting performance is displayed on a chart. In order for this chart to be consistent with your bets you must place the respective market in all bets that you make
In the “Trading” sheet is a sheet intended exclusively for traders. It works the same way as the “Bets” sheet. The difference is that you must register the purchase and sale of the bet.
In the “Trading Charts” sheet, your trading performance is shown through a chart. In order for this chart to be consistent with your bets you must complete the “Trading” sheet with all the necessary information.

Notas adicionais

Para alterar os dados apresentados no gráficos deves fazer o seguinte:
1. Primeiro desbloqueias a folha do Excel (No office 2007 e 2010 vais ao menu Rever e clicas em desproteger folha).
2. De seguida colocas o rato em cima da parte azul do gráfico e clicas no botão direito do rato.Vai abrir uma janela e clicas em seleccionar dados.
3. Vai abrir uma nova janela e repara que duas colunas dos dados que estão do lado esquerdo do gráfico vão ficar envoltas num tracejado. Essas colunas são os dados que entram para o gráfico.
4. Agora só tens que seleccionar com o rato a primeira coluna até onde queiras. Depois pressiona o CTRL e seleccionas a coluna dos lucros.
5. Depois é só fazer OK e já está.

Live betting or playing bets?

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Feb 21

Live betting or playing bets?

Who has not dreamed of living betting on sports that you are a fan of? It is an almost universal will. So universal that on facebook there are several dream sellers that offer sure bets, certain bets, consultancies, prognostics sale, among the most diverse services that promise to be possible to make money and survive sports betting.
The first bad news I’m going to give you is that 99% of these fan pages are lies, sham, they just want to rip their money and then disappear. Many of them only update the results after the games, fake records, disappear after you paid, in short, the vast majority are scammers and scammers. So if you dream of living on sports betting or at least earning some money in betting you need to dedicate yourself and not wait for someone to sell you magic beans.

Do not Believe in Magic Beans

There are several types of bettors and I’m not talking about the modalities like trader, punter, etc. But the way to approach the universe of sports betting. This is the first one you should decide:

1. The recreational gambler – this type of bettor does not care much about informing about absences or embezzlement in the team, game conditions or latest news. Banking management is also secondary. The interest of this type of bettor is as it indicates his terminology to have fun, to see a game with a made bet and to clear some money, but the act of betting is not based on a professional methodology or an analytical rigor. This type of bettor, who is the majority in the universe of sports betting, prioritizes the ludic part of online betting, wants to see his heart team, a derby, national team, a big match, etc .;
2. The professional gambler – Forget whether or not you will live betting. Professional bettors can distinguish themselves by approaching the universe of sports betting in a professional way with methodology, rigor, seriousness and study. For these is not a form of fun but rather to extract the maximum profit that sports betting can offer you. Therefore, concepts such as value, papper betting, bankroll management, incessant search for information are common protocols of this type of bettor.
Concept image of the six most common questions and answers on a signpost.

Professional vs Amateur – differences in method

It goes without saying that neither form is right or wrong nor is it better or worse. They are different ways that each one has to approach sports betting. No one is required to be a recreational or professional gambler. Both are perfectly understandable.
Just one caveat, if you want to be a recreational bettor, it’s no use expecting professional results from betting.
Sports betting will give you what exactly you will give them.
So, have fun, have fun, but do not expect more.
Being a recreational or professional gambler has nothing to do with surviving or not betting. Of course all those who survive betting are professionals but not necessarily every professional has to survive exclusively from betting. This is a very common mistake analysts make. Professionalism is about a professional approach and what your goal is with sports betting.
And how do you approach the universe of sports betting?

The Pros and Cons of betting on a legalized house

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Feb 21

The Pros and Cons of betting on a legalized house

The ApostaGanha, with this article goes to the meeting to clarify many of the doubts that are hovering in the general panorama of Portuguese bettors.
Since our regulator began issuing licenses to online bookmakers, many gamblers feel somewhat discouraged and others are limited. BetGanha analyzed the feedback of the bettors in general and refers in analysis in this article of the true pros and cons in betting on a legalized house or not.

Negative aspects

The Odds: We all knew that the odds offered by legalized houses would be much lower than what is available in the legalized market. The Portuguese bettor here may feel a bit “injured”, and in comparison the difference is accentuated.
Markets available: Recent bookmakers have not opened with many market options for each game. Normally and in general, they opted for the traditional Money Line, the Overs / Unders goals and here and there the European corner market and Handicaps. Recently, was launched in the Asian handicaps, we think it will be a beautiful bet of this house that claims to be innovative.
Competitions / Championships available: Some bookmakers do not cover the general sports panorama. On the one hand the regulator still does not allow to make available American sports, like MLB and NHL.
On the other hand, even in football, unlike the illegal houses, some championships are lacking, where many of the bettors specialized, because they were difficult and with some degree of difficulty of information for the houses, allowed a greater profitability by bet to the punter.
Commissions: Undoubtedly here may also be the Achilles heel for a bettor. Raising commissions may deter anyone. BetGanha believes that this condition can be perfectly overcome.
Some houses for example allow a withdrawal, without commissions, per month in the case of Betclic. Another such as, a minimum amount per withdrawal. We believe that for some beginning bettors you can be a “headache” but with our help, the gains will come and it will be easy to get around this situation.

Positive aspects

Disputes between bookmaker and bettor: We think that this is for now the cause that jumps in the face of the positive aspects of betting on a regulated house. In illegal houses we are “alone” against the house, here and now, regulated, we will always have the regulator where we can assert our point of view and report some irregularity.
For the gambler this is undoubtedly an added value and a security he has never had before. The law defends the gambler not only on the slope of responsible gambling but also to prevent any home from obeying the requirements that could harm their customers.
Self-exclusion: It will be one of the most careful aspects of the new law, where lawmakers took the utmost care. Here a bettor who feels “addicted” can self-exclude himself, also using our SRIJ regulator, and make it easier to stay away from gambling and avoid greater evils.
Financial / Taxation: The bettor can be completely rested, because when betting on a legalized house, he is obliged to send his gains to the finances. Thus the bettor will not have to declare anything in IRS. This applies only to values lower than those inscribed in the Personal Income Tax Act.
Data protection of the bettor: Another positive aspect, the bookmaker, according to the new Law, will have to “lock” the data of its client / bettors to seven keys. As you know the bettor when registering in a house has to send a series of data, such as copies and citizen’s card number, NIF, addresses and contact numbers and email.
Unlike a non-legalized home, this data could “fall” into the wrong hands, here this situation is more than safeguard by our regulator, and the law well defines this requirement to issue an operating license.


The BetGanha by way of conclusion has analyzed in some of the main details of the pros and cons in betting on a legalized house. The conclusion is simple and we want to want one thing to be certain and notorious, the Gambler is certainly more protected.
That’s why we always consider this an added value in this “virtual” world where many are suspicious of the veracity of the companies that are behind a page available on the web.